AN EXPERIMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK     

李建云  丁裕国  史久恩 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1998,4(2):215-219

Obvious results have been achieved in the forecast of typhoon track that is improved with a consensus procedure Forecast experiments were conducted with the analogue model (TSF) and the Markov type model (MTSF)that are widely used and the results show that there has been significant increase in the capability of forecasting with the improvement by the consensus procedure.  相似文献   

El Nino事件当年和次年夏季低纬环流特征的初步分析          下载免费PDF全文

阮均石 《大气科学学报》1998,21(4):737-742

分析1950年以来中等强度以上的ElNiño和LaNina当年和次年夏季(7月)低纬度风场和500hPa高度距平场,发现有不同的特征。其中中-西太平洋近赤道地区850、200hPa上风场异常变化十分明显,这种异常变化与南北半球大气相互作用有密切关系。在500hPa高度距平场上,北半球中、高和低纬地区表现出不同的正、负距平分布型式。上述特点对气候短期预测有一定参考意义。  相似文献   

2000—2019年秦岭南北实际蒸散发时空变化特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李双双  张玉凤  张立伟  王婷  延军平 《地理科学进展》2021,40(11):1900-1910

基于遥感数据全面认识复杂地形单元实际蒸散发时空规律,对区域可持续水资源管理具有重要的意义。论文基于MODIS实际蒸散发(ET)数据,对2000—2019年秦岭南北ET时空变化特征进行分析,探究不同分区ET对植被变化的响应关系,进而识别ET趋势和年代变化的高相关海气环流因素。结果表明：① 在变化趋势上,以1000 m等高线为界,即秦岭地区北亚热带和山地暖温带的分界线,低海拔河谷地带为ET显著增加区,山地高海拔地区为ET下降区;② 除城市、乡镇周边地区,研究期间秦岭南北下垫面相对稳定,转为生态用地的活跃区主要分布在山地1000 m过渡带,其是ET与NDVI变化显著相关区,而1000 m以上高海拔地区两者相关性较低;③ ENSO、青藏高原北部气压异常,与秦岭山地、汉江谷地ET的趋势变化和年代波动显著相关,而西太平洋副热带高压与ET的趋势显著相关,与年代波动特征相关较弱。即发生中部型厄尔尼诺事件时,西太平洋副热带高压偏强,对流层低层形成异常反气旋,导致中国东部雨带北移,秦岭山地和汉江谷地降水偏少,气温偏高,ET往往偏大。研究结果启示：秦岭南北科学适应气候变化时,应关注秦岭山地、汉江谷地ET变化显著相关的环流信号;应深刻理解秦岭高海拔地区蒸散发下降趋势对区域水资源管理的影响。  相似文献   

Methodology of hydrogeological characterization of deep carbonate aquifers as potential reservoirs of groundwater. Case of study: the Jurassic aquifer of <Emphasis Type="Italic">El Maestrazgo</Emphasis> (Castellón,Spain)     

M. Mejías  J. Garcia-Orellana  J. L. Plata  M. Marina  E. Garcia-Solsona  B. Ballesteros  P. Masqué  J. López  C. Fernández-Arrojo 《Environmental Geology》2008,54(3):521-536

A methodology for the characterization of deep carbonate aquifers has been developed and applied to El Maestrazgo Jurassic aquifer in Castellón, Spain. Characterization of these aquifer formations, located at more than 300 m deep, consisted of a previous phase of compilation, analysis and synthesis of the existing information about the area, followed by a coordinated combination of different speciality studies: geology, stratigraphy, structural analysis, hydrogeology, hydrochemistry, geophysics and remote sensing. Geological studies included geological mapping, definition of stratigraphical units and facies and structural analysis. The aim of the hydrogeology study was to define aquifer formations, recharge area, aquifer points inventory and groundwater flow directions for the establishment of piezometric and water quality observation nets. Special techniques were applied, like thermal infrared aerial images and the evaluation of submarine groundwater discharge by means of natural radium isotopes. Hydrochemical techniques, including majority elements characterization and stable isotopes (¹⁸O, ²H and ³H) determination, allowed classifying hydrochemical facies and establishing a renewal pattern for water within the system. Geophysics was useful in determining the aquifer geometry, the features of the basement and the petrophysical characteristics of the geological formations. Preliminary results show an important tectonic complexity and the possibilities for groundwater uses in the area of study.  相似文献   

Contrasting Regional Responses of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall to Exhausted Spring and Concurrently Emerging Summer El Ni?o Events     

E.K.KRISHNA KUMAR  S.ABHILASH  SANKAR SYAM  P.VIJAYKUMAR  K.R.SANTOSH  A.V.SREENATH 《大气科学进展》2023,40(4):697-710

The inverse relationship between the warm phase of the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall(ISMR) is well established. Yet, some El Ni?o events that occur in the early months of the year(boreal spring) transform into a neutral phase before the start of summer, whereas others begin in the boreal summer and persist in a positive phase throughout the summer monsoon season. This study investigates the distinct influences of an exhausted spring El Ni?o(springtime)...  相似文献   

Variational iteration solving method for El Nio phenomenon atmospheric physics of nonlinear model     

MO Jiaqi  *  WANG Hui  LIN Wantao  LIN Yihua. Anhui Normal University  Wuhu  China. Division of Computional Science  E-Institute of Shanghai Universities  Shanghai Jiaotong University Shanghai  China. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences  Beijing  China. State Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences  Geophysical Fluid Dynamics  Institute of Atmosheric Physics  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Beijing  China 《海洋学报(英文版)》2005,(5)

1 IntroductionThe El Ni’o atmospheric physics oscillation is anabnormal phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacificocean- atmosphere interactions. Studies on the El Ni(ophenomenon are very attractive (Lin et al., 2000; Linet al., 2001, 2002; Wang, 2001; Feng et al., 2001;Feng et al., 2002; Liu et al., 2002; Wei and Chen,2003; Xie et al., 2002; Zhu et al., 2002; Pu et al.,2003; Gu et al., 2004; Yu and Liu, 2004). Lin and Mo(2004), Mo and Lin (2004) and Mo et al. (2004) alsostudied a s…  相似文献   

Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario     

I. Lozano  R. J. N. Devoy  W. May  U. Andersen 《Marine Geology》2004,210(1-4):205-225

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.  相似文献   

Anomalous change of the Antarctic sea ice and global sea level change   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Xie Simei  Zou Bing  Wang Yi  Bao Chenglan 《海洋学报(英文版)》1996,15(2):193-208

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A proposed mechanism for the Bohuslan herring periods     

Corten  A. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1999,56(2):207-220

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Oceanographic influences on seabirds and cetaceans of the eastern tropical Pacific: A review     

Lisa T. Ballance  Robert L. Pitman  Paul C. Fiedler 《Progress in Oceanography》2006,69(2-4):360

This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific, the oceanic region centered on the eastern Pacific warm pool, but also including the equatorial cold tongue and equatorial current system, and summarizes what is known about oceanographic influences on seabirds and cetaceans there. The eastern tropical Pacific supports on the order of 50 species of seabirds and 30 species of cetaceans as regular residents; these include four endemic species, the world’s largest populations for several others, three endemic sub-species, and a multi-species community that is relatively unique to this ecosystem. Three of the meso-scale physical features of the region are particularly significant to seabirds and cetaceans: the Costa Rica Dome for blue whales and short-beaked common dolphins, the Equatorial Front for planktivorous seabirds, and the countercurrent thermocline ridge for flocking seabirds that associate with mixed-species schools of spotted and spinner dolphins and yellowfin tuna. A few qualitative studies of meso- to macro-scale distribution patterns have indicated that some seabirds and cetaceans have species-specific preferences for surface currents. More common are associations with distinct water masses; these relationships have been quantified for a number of species using several different analytical methods. The mechanisms underlying tropical species–habitat relationships are not well understood, in contrast to a number of higher-latitude systems. This may be due to the fact that physical variables have been used as proxies for prey abundance and distribution in species–habitat research in the eastern tropical Pacific.Though seasonal and interannual patterns tend to be complex, species–habitat relationships appear to remain relatively stable over time, and distribution patterns co-vary with patterns of preferred habitat for a number of species. The interactions between seasonal and interannual variation in oceanographic conditions with seasonal patterns in the biology of seabirds and cetaceans may account for some of the complexity in species–habitat relationship patterns.Little work has been done to investigate effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycles on cetaceans, and results of the few studies focusing on oceanic seabirds are complex and not easy to interpret. Although much has been made of the detrimental effects of El Niño events on apex predators, more research is needed to understand the magnitude, and even direction, of these effects on seabirds and cetaceans in space and time.  相似文献